Exchange Rate and Export Competitiveness of Southeast Asian Economies: A Study of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand

by Saadiah Mohamad
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The primary concern of this study is to examine the role of exchange rate policy towards the success of export-oriented economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand. This is to test the proposition that export growth in these countries has been boosted largely by undervalued currencies. The first part of the empirical work examines the movement of actual real exchange rate (RER) vis-a-vis an econometrics model based estimates of long run equilibrium exchange rate (ERER). The study investigates the underlying causes for the path taken by ERER and identifies episodes of real exchange rate misalignment (RERMIS). In the second part of the empirical work, the effects of RERMIS on exports in examined while controlling for other factors including macroeconomic stability, investment in capital goods, external demand, and the role of human capital. The methodology in this work involves the use of a new robust alternative approach to cointegration using the Pesaran et al's model to arrive at estimates of ERER. The study uses time series data for period of 1965-1998 for each of the country estimated. The second part of empirical work uses a panel data which is obtained by pooling the time series and the cross sectional data of the four countries. The main findings indicate that actual RER depreciations generally track the ERER path ang there have not been persistent undervaluations during the period. However, from the mid 1980s, there are evidences of undervaluation in all the four countries. For the export equation, RERMIS, ERER exchange rate variability are found to affect exports significantly. The study provides several policy implications. This includes the importance of evaluating the performance of exchange rates againts a theoretically sound notion of an equilibrium rate. Policies based simply on historical time series analysis of nominal and real exchange rate trends can be erroneous. The study points to the importance of identifying the position of ERER and the use of good techniques of estimation if policies are to rely on this. The study concludes that while there was no clear competitive exchange rate policy targeted at exports, exchange rate management together with the country's macroeconomic countries. Future policies to boost exports need to take into account the position of exchange rate vis-a-vis its equilibrium level, the regional ER stability and other contributing factors including the role of human capital.

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